Harvard Yard Picks

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South Carolina vs. LSU; Kentucky vs. Arkansas; Mississippi State vs. Tennessee

Smokey’s Game of the Week

South Carolina (5-2, 2-2) vs. LSU (4-1, 2-1)

In the land of the pines, this is what we call a helmet-gear matchup. Darth Visor and The Hat in a head covering death match. One coach is an offensive genius, a man who took Duke to levels it hadn’t seen since Wallace Wade and transformed Florida from a team in the basement of the SEC to a national powerhouse. Steve Spurrier looks to do the same at South Carolina, a relatively dormant program despite a traditionally deep talent pool in its home state. The other field general is a mentally unsound, football dilettante who fell bassackwards into a talent rich powerhouse that by all rights should have been the first team to win three straight national championships. Instead, Les Miles has presided over the slow deterioration of the LSU program, despite continued recruiting success and the dumb luckiest (emphasizing dumb) National Championship since the NCAA (never) started keeping records. This is a classic match up between talent and coaching. Spurrier has what Bryant had: he can take your’ens and beat his’ens and then take his’ens and beat your’ens. Les Miles suffers from lack of blood flow to the brain caused by the tightness of his two size too small hat, but has an overall talent advantage.  Still, you can never over-estimate Les Miles…when it comes to stupid.

I remember when I first recognized the inherent stupidity of Les Miles. It was his first year with the Tigers, and his LSU team was playing the hated Tennessee Volunteers. Being a good Great Pumpkin hater, I was hoping that LSU could rain on Tennessee’s championship parade. Toward the end of the game, LSU came up with a critical interception. Les Miles immediately ran onto the field, calling for a time out, presumably to stop the clock. His assistant coaches quickly corralled him, explaining to the dumb (struck) Miles that the clock stops automatically on a change of possession. One would think that 40-plus years of coaching and playing would have taught him this oh so basic rule of the game, but apparently I was wrong. But even Miles managed to win with the talent left behind by Nick Saban, despite often falling on his face against vastly inferior opposition. Winning, however, has not brought intelligence. Even now, the camera will often catch Miles with a vacant expression during some critical moment of the game, as if he were no more involved in the action on the field than the average child with a video game. Last week’s emasculation of the LSU team by Florida sounded an ominous warning to the faithful. If LSU follows it up with a loss to South Carolina, the iron fisted rule of the Bengal Tigers may be over.

As Les Miles fiddles while the bayou burns, Steve Spurrier has quietly built a contender in South Carolina. Overshadowed by early season, turnover induced losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia, South Carolina has largely been forgotten. Despite the lack of hype, the Gamecocks boast a terrific defense, quite possibly the best in the SEC. With the recent emergence of super talent Stephen Garcia, South Carolina all of the sudden has an offense as well. Garcia seems as though he has what it takes to succeed under His Dark Lordship of the Forward Pass. Spurrier requires very little of his quarterbacks. All he asks is that they surrender their eternal souls, allowing him to telepathically inhabit their body in order to return to the field. As a bonus, they retrieve their spirit at the end of their college career, going on to succeed in failing miserably in the NFL.

So in a battle of East and West who comes out on top? Spurrier. And it won’t even be close. Mark my words, “We should have seen it coming” will be a phrase spoken at length by ESPN talking heads following this game. LSU is a fallen power. Like the Soviet Union of the 1970’s, it bristles with power and might, but is instead a rotten and empty hulk of what it once was. Florida was LSU’s Afghanistan, and South Carolina is about to tear down that wall.

At the beginning of the year, LSU’s recognized weaknesses lie in a secondary and linebacker corps that had been devastated by graduation. It’s defensive line was to be the strength off the defense. That line has not lived up to expectations. From injuries to leaders like part time comedian Ricky Jean-Francois, to just plan under-performance, LSU found itself unable to either pressure the QB or stop the run against the only decent team it has played this year, Florida, allowing 265 yards on the ground. Florida’s Jeffrey Demps averaged 13 yards a touch. On ten rushes. Meanwhile Tim Tebow only threw the ball 21 times, completing 14 for 210 yards. The bad news for LSU? The Defense was supposed to be its strength. On the offensive side of the ball, LSU has no true starter at QB. Both played against Florida, and while Lee was clearly the better performer, his tendency to throw to the wrong team does not inspire confidence in his ability. Lee’s only good performance came in a dogfight with Auburn, now recognized as the 9^th or 10^th best team in the SEC. Given that there are only 12 teams in the conference–one of them being Mississippi State who lost, 3-2, on a walk-off homerun to Auburn–it goes without saying that LSU has accomplished very little this year.

South Carolina, on the other hand, has quietly grown into a powerful football team. South Carolina has lost two games this year. It should have won both. Unfortunately, the Cocks have one significant weakness: turnovers. Against both Vanderbilt and Georgia, South Carolina literally gave the game to its opponents. Will that continue this week? If it does, South Carolina will lose. While the talent is improving on offense (and the defense is world class already), South Carolina does not have the guns to overcome mistakes. The most important goal for South Carolina, then, is to ensure that it doesn’t use the guns it does have to shoot itself in the foot. In the end, expect Garcia to light up a weak LSU secondary, while South Carolina’s young tackles and guards hold off an under-performing Tiger defensive line. Meanwhile, LSU’s young quarterbacks will face the best defense they will see all season. Don’t bank on the Tigers scoring many points.

These are two teams heading in different directions, and this is the cross roads.  If South Carolina wins, mark it down;  this is the turning point of the entire program and the most important game in school history.  With the implosion of Clemson, South Carolina has the opportunity to own a talent rich state.  Expect Spurrier to seize that opportunity.

South Carolina 24 LSU 10

Brick’s Pick

This is potentially a program changing win for the Cocks. A win here poised the Cocks for a 8 or 9 win season, a New Year’s Day Bowl (even if less significant than in days of old), and a strong finish to recruiting. All of which would prime Darth Visor for his aggressive takeover of the SEC East in an encirclement action not seen since Stalin took the Reich’s 5th Army to the woodshed at Stalingrad. (God, I hate that stupid, stupid expression. Damn you ESPN!).

South Cackalacky 28 LSU 17

Kentucky (4-2, 0-2) vs. Arkansas (3-3, 1-2)

This is one of those games that probably won’t be as good as some might think.  The general opinion surrounding these two teams is that both are suffering a rebuilding year.  Kentucky lost some of the best non-basketball players to ever attend that University.  Arkansas lost the world class running back tandem of McFadden and Jones, along with a coach who was tailor made for success at Arkansas.

And let’s belabor that last point.  Some people’s lives are meant solely as warnings to others.  Such it is with Arkansas fans.  Edgar Allen Poe once wrote a story about Arkansas fans.  He called it the Masque of Red Death.  It was about a group of people who partied while the Reaper was in their midst.  Oh wait, what’s that smell?  Barbeque?  No, it’s Arkansas fans self-immolating.  And celebrating while the burn.  So instead of reloading, instead of having good, raw recruits under the Nut-Nut, a coach who knows how to inspire his troops no matter what the odds, Arkansas has a team with no talent on either side of the ball.  Even in victory they look terrible, as they did against a truly pathetic Auburn team last week.  How many times did they try and give the game away?  Innumerable, though handing Auburn the ball THRICE inside the red zone is a good start.  Enjoy it Arkansas fans.  You wanted it.

Kentucky, on the other hand, has played well against two quality SEC opponents.  Unfortunately for the Cats, they have almost no offense.  Against Arkansas they won’t need it.  Kentucky’s defensive line is truly dominating, and Arkansas may not score.  This is a strength on strength matchup, though, as Arkansas does have very good talent on the offensive line, and a possible star at running back, though his statistics up to this point are vastly overinflated.  If Kentucky had weaker defensive line, that might make a difference.  Here in the Yard, we preach blocking and tackling, but Arkansas has nothing behind its line, and Kentucky has the tackling part down.

Kentucky 31 Arkansas 13

Brick’s Pick

Arkansas is B-A-D. And they deserve everything that happens to them. Kentucky reminds me a lot of many Gamecock teams: good, but with little depth, playing closely and losing late. Not this time.

Kentucky 18 Arkansas 3

Tennessee (2-4, 0-3) v. Mississippi St. (2-4, 1-2)

Sylvester Croom joins the Red Cross.

Ah a cross divisional battle of SEC powerhouses.  Both coaches need this win, Phil Fulmer more than his Western counterpart.  The Great Pumpkin is coming off a trip to the SEC Championship and a contract extension (ask Tommy Bowden about those) while Silvester Croom celebrated a bowl victory and one of the best seasons of Bulldog football in recent memory, with wins over Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss.  Both teams came into the season with great expectations.  Some commentators even tagged Tennessee as a dark horse for the National Championship.  But the first game of the season wasn’t kid to either team, with Tennessee falling to a very bad UCLA team while Miss. St. lost at La. Tech.  While the Bulldogs have at least beaten Eastern powerhouse Vanderbilt and lost a close one in the 9th Inning to the Auburn Tigers, Tennessee’s lone accomplishments are against UAB and NIU.

Tennessee suffers primarily from over inflated expectations.  The same commentators who became anxious over LSU’s chances following the transfer of predicted starter at QB Ryan Perriloux failed to recognize similar danger for a Tennessee team losing a 3 year starter AND an offensive coordinator named David Cutcliffe, without whom the Great Pumpkin has had little if any success.  And it is difficult to decide which team has had a worse experience with the Spread, Auburn and its Spread Eagle or Tennessee and the Clawfense.  In any event, Philip Fulmer needs a win, and he needs one now.  Many are speculating that the Alabama game next week could be his Alamo, but lose to Mississippi St. and he may not make it that far.

This game is difficult to handicap, as both teams are truly inept on offense.  The strength of the team should be its offensive line and running game.  Many thought the hog-mollies up front would be the best in the conference, and by all rights Arian Foster should be continuing in a long line of Tennessee running backs.  Instead, Foster has shown a continuing tendency to fumble the ball at the worst possible moments, preventing scores for Tennessee and giving games away the Vols should win.  Meanwhile, Tennessee has no Quarterback to speak of, and it appears that Jonathan Crompton has lost the support of the coaching staff.  Tennessee’s defense was never going to be the strength of this team, with average players on both the line and at linebacker, and it has shown a tendency to quit playing when the chips have been down.

Mississippi St., on the other hand, appears to be improving.  While the Vanderbilt game was a snooze-fest, the Bulldogs did manage to avoid turnovers, the key to Vandy’s success against all other opponents this year.  The Bullies also moved the ball against LSU, and if they played Auburn again this week, they would probably beat them.  Mississippi St.’s problem lies in its lines.  Despite having a very good secondary, experienced running backs, and a QB in Tyson Lee who looks like the future, Mississippi St. has young, untalented lines.  In a sports where blocking and tackling wins 9 out of 10 games that’s a problem.  If Mississippi St. were playing anyone else, this would be an easy pick.  But they aren’t.  They are playing a woeful Tennessee team with nothing but broken dreams.  And they are playing them in Neyland Stadium, where 80,000 fans and 20,000 empty seats await to further crush the Vols spirit every time they make a mistake.  The Dogs are a 7.5 point underdog, but I think this Vols team has given up.

Mississippi St. 17 Tennessee 16

Brick’s Pick

Fulmer, how do I hate thee? Let me count the ways. Or, better yet, let me show you through an illustration. I hate you like Khan hated Kirk in Star Trek II.

From the depths of Hell I spit at thee Phat Phil!

Tennessee - another team that deserves what happens to them. When they play the Cocks.

Tennessee 14 Miss State 10

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 15th, 2008 at 6:01 pm and is filed under LSU, Miss State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.